Writing

Writing on AI, decisions, and diagnosis

Short pieces on how I approach problems: naming the real one, deciding what kind of fix it needs, and using technology only where it changes the outcome.

  1. 01FrameworkAI strategy starts with the decision, not the modelA six-part way to examine any AI opportunity: input, prediction, judgment, action, outcome, and feedback. Plus the evidence on why AI spending stalls, and how to decide whether to build or buy.Includes the build-or-buy matrix
  2. 02EssayDiagnosis before toolsCall volume is a symptom. Before recommending a chatbot, or any new system, find out what's driving the problem and whether a simpler fix gets most of the benefit.Includes an interactive eight-question check
  3. 03Guide · 46 slidesHow to Become AI-NativeMy long-form guide to redesigning decisions and workflows around cheaper prediction, building on Prediction Machines by Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb.Read online or download the PDF